Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 33

Apr 22, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
1 - 2
Inter Milan

Tomori (80')
Hernandez (36'), Tomori (90+2'), Gabbia (90')
Hernandez (90+3'), Calabria (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Acerbi (18'), Thuram (49')
Barella (22'), Inzaghi (23'), Martinez (32')
Dumfries (90+3')

The Match

Match Report

Inter Milan claim a narrow 2-1 victory over city rivals AC Milan to seal their 20th Serie A title.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Serie A derby between AC Milan and Inter Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Roma 2-1 AC Milan
Thursday, April 18 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Inter Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Inter Milan 2-2 Cagliari
Sunday, April 14 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 0-1 (8.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Inter Milan in this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Inter Milan
40.29% ( -0.31)	25.7% ( 0.12)	34.02% ( 0.19)

Both teams to score 54.94% (

-0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.87% (

-0.5)

49.13% (

0.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.8% (

-0.45)

71.2% (

0.45)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.9% (

-0.38)

24.1% (

0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.61% (

-0.55)

58.39% (

0.55)

Inter Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.38% (

-0.12)

27.62% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.84% (

-0.15)

63.16% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 40.29%

Inter Milan 34.02%

Draw 25.69%

AC Milan	Draw	Inter Milan
1-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 6.74% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.11% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 3.2% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.91% Total : 40.29%	1-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.69%	0-1 @ 8.56% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.84% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 3.36% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.08% ( -0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 34.02%