Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28

Apr 7, 2024 at 12pm UK

Stade Francis-Le Ble

Brest
4 - 3
Metz

Chardonnet (12'), Doumbia (31'), Mounie (38'), Satriano (60')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Traore (6'), Mikautadze (74', 80')
Udol (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Metz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions

Last Game: Lorient 0-1 Brest
Sunday, March 31 at 12pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Metz

All competitions

Last Game: Metz 2-5 Monaco
Saturday, March 30 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Metz have won on their previous two visits here, scoring six goals in the process, but with Brest's defence currently the toughest to breach in all of France, a repeat scenario looks unlikely. Going eight games unbeaten at home has seen Brest take 18 points, and against a lowly Metz, an additional three are to be expected, with another clean sheet to boot. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 52.65%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 22.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.

Result
Brest	Draw	Metz
52.65% ( -0.13)	25.21% ( 0.04)	22.13% ( 0.09)

Both teams to score 48.07% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.91% (

-0.05)

54.08% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.49% (

-0.04)

75.51% (

0.03)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.45% (

-0.07)

20.54% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.94% (

-0.11)

53.05% (

0.11)

Metz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.5% (

0.06)

39.49% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.81% (

0.06)

76.18% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Brest 52.65%

Metz 22.13%

Draw 25.2%

Brest	Draw	Metz
1-0 @ 12.84% 2-0 @ 10.16% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.36% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 2.55% Total : 52.65%	1-1 @ 11.92% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.11% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( 0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.2%	0-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.54% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.4% Total : 22.13%