Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 3, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli
2 - 3
Real Madrid

Skiri Oestigaard (19'), Zielinski (54' pen.)
Natan (45')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Junior (27'), Bellingham (34'), Meret (78' og.)
Camavinga (29'), Bellingham (70'), Arrizabalaga (89')

Carlo Ancelotti admits he has been "surprised" by Jude Bellingham

Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti says that Jude Bellingham's form during the 2023-24 campaign has "surprised" him.

Oct 4, 14:19

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Lecce 0-4 Napoli
Saturday, September 30 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Girona 0-3 Real Madrid
Saturday, September 30 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.32%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.

Result
Napoli	Draw	Real Madrid
43.81% ( 0.68)	23.45% ( -0.49)	32.74% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 62.48% (

1.71)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.89% (

2.28)

39.11% (

-2.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.56% (

2.35)

61.43% (

-2.36)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.77% (

1.21)

18.22% (

-1.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.75% (

2.03)

49.25% (

-2.04)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.41% (

0.97)

23.58% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.34% (

1.39)

57.65% (

-1.39)

Score Analysis

Napoli 43.81%

Real Madrid 32.74%

Draw 23.45%

Napoli	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 9% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.32% ( -0.5) 2-0 @ 6.23% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 5.11% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.24) 3-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.16) 4-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.16) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.69% Total : 43.81%	1-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.41) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.48) 3-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.16) Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.45%	1-2 @ 7.63% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 6.21% ( -0.5) 0-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.22) 1-3 @ 3.68% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.13% ( 0.18) 0-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.99% Total : 32.74%