Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.26%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
Result | ||
Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
50.76% ( -1.36) | 20.91% ( -0.12) | 28.34% ( 1.48) |
Both teams to score 69.36% ( 1.8) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.97% ( 1.8) | 29.03% ( -1.8) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.99% ( 2.18) | 50.01% ( -2.17) |
Macarthur Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.97% ( 0.23) | 12.02% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.5% ( 0.48) | 37.49% ( -0.48) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.84% ( 1.85) | 21.15% ( -1.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.99% ( 2.79) | 54.01% ( -2.79) |
Score Analysis |
Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0.26) 3-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.5) 1-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.53) 3-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.17) 3-0 @ 4.03% ( -0.32) 4-1 @ 3.31% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.15) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.13) 5-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.06) 5-0 @ 0.9% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.89% Total : 50.76% | 1-1 @ 8.37% ( -0.33) 2-2 @ 6.89% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.28) 3-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.22) Other @ 0.59% Total : 20.91% | 1-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.19) 2-3 @ 3.57% ( 0.28) 1-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.1) 2-4 @ 1.39% ( 0.18) 1-4 @ 1.31% ( 0.16) 3-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.63% Total : 28.34% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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