Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 68.12%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Adelaide United had a probability of 13.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 1-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.62%), while for an Adelaide United win it was 1-2 (3.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
68.12% ( 0.56) | 18.37% ( -0.13) | 13.51% ( -0.44) |
Both teams to score 53.15% ( -0.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.2% ( -0.44) | 38.8% ( 0.44) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.89% ( -0.47) | 61.11% ( 0.47) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.58% ( 0.02) | 10.42% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.02% ( 0.04) | 33.98% ( -0.04) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.33% ( -0.91) | 40.67% ( 0.92) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.74% ( -0.83) | 77.26% ( 0.83) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
2-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.21) 3-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 7.35% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 4.16% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.88% 4-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.05) Other @ 4.51% Total : 68.11% | 1-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.37% | 1-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.63% Total : 13.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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