Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 11

Oct 22, 2022 at 2.30pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
2 - 2
Wolfsburg

Diaby (17'), Frimpong (76')
Tah (49'), Andrich (80'), Fosu-Mensah (90+1')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Andrich (28' og.), Arnold (54' pen.)
Nmecha (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Frankfurt 5-1 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, October 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Wolfsburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Braunschweig 1-2 Wolfsburg
Tuesday, October 18 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Wolfsburg

Amazingly, the side at home in this fixture have failed to win in the last 12 head-to-head's between the sides, and given Leverkusen's recent form, that looks unlikely to change. Also, eight of Leverkusen's 10 Bundesliga matches this season have seen three goals or more, but many have gone in at the wrong end for Bayer, so if Wolfsburg can capitalise on that, they should leave with something. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 61.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 17.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 1-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a Wolfsburg win it was 1-2 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Wolfsburg
61.91% ( -2.96)	20.11% ( 0.8)	17.97% ( 2.17)

Both teams to score 57.83% (

1.94)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.11% (

0.29)

37.88% (

-0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.86% (

0.31)

60.14% (

-0.31)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.23% (

-0.7)

11.77% (

0.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.04% (

-1.53)

36.95% (

1.53)

Wolfsburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.54% (

2.7)

34.45% (

-2.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.83% (

2.78)

71.16% (

-2.78)

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 61.91%

Wolfsburg 17.97%

Draw 20.11%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Wolfsburg
2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.28% ( -0.68) 1-0 @ 8.68% ( -0.38) 3-1 @ 7.05% ( -0.18) 3-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.69) 4-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.18) 4-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.48) 4-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.14) 5-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.26) Other @ 4.17% Total : 61.91%	1-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.39) 0-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.11%	1-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.49) 0-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.29) 2-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.26) 1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.29) Other @ 2.8% Total : 17.97%