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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 31.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Birmingham City | Draw | Swansea City |
31.39% ( -1.19) | 26.3% ( 0.01) | 42.3% ( 1.17) |
Both teams to score 52.12% ( -0.47) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.61% ( -0.41) | 52.38% ( 0.4) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.93% ( -0.36) | 74.06% ( 0.35) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.05% ( -1.02) | 30.94% ( 1.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.75% ( -1.21) | 67.24% ( 1.2) |
Swansea City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.47% ( 0.41) | 24.52% ( -0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.01% ( 0.58) | 58.98% ( -0.59) |
Score Analysis |
Birmingham City | Draw | Swansea City |
1-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 7.34% ( -0.21) 2-0 @ 5.22% ( -0.21) 3-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 2.04% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.09) Other @ 3% Total : 31.39% | 1-1 @ 12.51% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.16% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.3% | 0-1 @ 10.66% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 8.79% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 7.5% ( 0.3) 1-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.18) 2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.62% Total : 42.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Leicester CityLeicester | 46 | 31 | 4 | 11 | 89 | 41 | 48 | 97 |
P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 92 | 57 | 35 | 96 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 81 | 43 | 38 | 90 |
P | Southampton | 46 | 26 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 63 | 24 | 87 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 47 | 23 | 75 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 73 |
7 | Hull City | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 60 | 8 | 70 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 71 | 62 | 9 | 69 |
9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 64 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 63 |
11 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 62 |
12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 62 |
13 | Millwall | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 59 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 59 | 65 | -6 | 57 |
15 | Watford | 46 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 61 | 61 | 0 | 56 |
16 | Sunderland | 46 | 16 | 8 | 22 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 56 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 56 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 56 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 60 | 74 | -14 | 53 |
20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 53 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 51 |
R | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 50 | 65 | -15 | 50 |
R | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 9 | 18 | 19 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 45 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 37 | 89 | -52 | 27 |
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