The ineligibility of Souza against his parent club could be the decisive factor in this match, with the free-scoring visitors likely to be blunted by his absence. Only three teams have conceded fewer goals than Shandong so far this season, and we can envisage them frustrating Changchun on the way to a crucial victory, which would see them leapfrog their opponents in the table. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shandong Taishan win with a probability of 79.05%. A draw had a probability of 13.8% and a win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 7.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Shandong Taishan win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.29%) and 1-0 (10.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.58%), while for a Changchun Yatai win it was 0-1 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Shandong Taishan would win this match.

Result
Shandong Taishan	Draw	Changchun Yatai
79.05% ( 0.75)	13.83% ( -0.24)	7.12% ( -0.52)

Both teams to score 44.49% (

-1.87)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.12% (

-0.92)

36.88% (

0.92)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.94% (

-1.01)

59.06% (

1.01)

Shandong Taishan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.56% (

-0.05)

7.44% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.23% (

-0.12)

26.77% (

0.12)

Changchun Yatai Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.07% (

-2)

51.93% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.04% (

-1.35)

85.96% (

1.35)

Score Analysis

Shandong Taishan 79.03%

Changchun Yatai 7.12%

Draw 13.83%

Shandong Taishan	Draw	Changchun Yatai
2-0 @ 13.04% ( 0.52) 3-0 @ 11.29% ( 0.42) 1-0 @ 10.03% ( 0.41) 2-1 @ 8.55% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.15) 4-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.26) 4-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.13) 5-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.2) 6-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.13) 6-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.53% Total : 79.03%	1-1 @ 6.58% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.22) Other @ 0.59% Total : 13.83%	0-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.16) Other @ 2.44% Total : 7.12%