Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 30, 2024 at 11pm UK

Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Independiente
2 - 1
Liverpool

Diaz (20', 55')
Alcivar (43')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Gonzalez (35')
Cayetano (16'), Gonzalez (17'), Vergara (22'), Rosso (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Independiente del Valle and Liverpool, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente del Valle

Last Game: Palmeiras 2-1 Independiente
Thursday, May 16 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Liverpool

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Liverpool 1-2 Rampla
Saturday, May 25 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

We said: Independiente del Valle 1-0 Liverpool

A one-goal triumph may not be enough to vault them into second place, but we trust Independiente del Valle to get the job done because they are used to playing in these win-or-go-home scenarios. Needing to score a plethora of goals could leave Liverpool exposed in transition, something the Ecuadorians will be able to use to their advantage on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 69.48%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Liverpool had a probability of 12.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 1-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.26%), while for a Liverpool win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.

Result
Independiente del Valle	Draw	Liverpool
69.48% ( -1.41)	17.69% ( 0.53)	12.83% ( 0.88)

Both teams to score 53.63% (

0.93)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.81% (

-0.2)

37.19% (

0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.61% (

-0.22)

59.39% (

0.22)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.35% (

-0.38)

9.65% (

0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.79% (

-0.91)

32.21% (

0.9)

Liverpool Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.36% (

1.27)

40.64% (

-1.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.76% (

1.13)

77.23% (

-1.13)

Score Analysis

Independiente del Valle 69.48%

Liverpool 12.83%

Draw 17.69%

Independiente del Valle	Draw	Liverpool
2-0 @ 10.72% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 8.36% ( -0.36) 3-1 @ 7.52% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.3) 4-1 @ 4.4% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.09) 5-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.18) 5-1 @ 2.06% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.14% Total : 69.48%	1-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.15% Total : 17.69%	1-2 @ 3.72% ( 0.23) 0-1 @ 3.53% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.1) Other @ 1.57% Total : 12.83%