While Rosario Central won the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier in the competition, they now have to make the trip to Estadio Campeon del Siglo, where Penarol are riding a four-match winning streak in all competitions and have only suffered one defeat in 2024. After the off-field issues that took place in Rosario back in April, another heated contest is to be expected when these two collide on Tuesday, but we feel that the hosts will come away from the match victorious and will progress to the next round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Rosario Central had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Rosario Central win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Penarol in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Penarol.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Rosario Central
43.78% ( 0.02)	27.63% ( 0)	28.58% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 46.85% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.51% (

-0.02)

58.49% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.93% (

-0.01)

79.07% (

0.01)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.47% (

26.53% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.27% (

61.74% (

-0)

Rosario Central Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.77% (

-0.02)

36.23% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.99% (

-0.02)

73.01% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Penarol 43.78%

Rosario Central 28.58%

Draw 27.62%

Penarol	Draw	Rosario Central
1-0 @ 12.75% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.8% 3-0 @ 3.74% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.26% 4-0 @ 1.24% ( 0) Other @ 2.01% Total : 43.78%	1-1 @ 12.94% 0-0 @ 9.61% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( -0) Other @ 0.71% Total : 27.62%	0-1 @ 9.76% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.57% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.95% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.68% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0) Other @ 1.92% Total : 28.58%