Copa Sudamericana | First Round

Apr 6, 2021 at 11.15pm UK

Estadio George Capwell

Emelec
2 - 0
Macara

Barcelo (5'), Francisco Cevallos Enriquez (76')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Nicolas Duffard Villarreal (31'), Damian Schmidt (50'), Garces (63')
Jesus Rodriguez Mesa (65')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Emelec and Macara.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 40.76%. A win for Macara had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.78%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Macara win was 1-2 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Emelec would win this match.

Result
Emelec	Draw	Macara
40.76%	24.23%	35%

Both teams to score 60.3%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.74%

42.25%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.34%

64.66%

Emelec Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.13%

20.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.43%

53.56%

Macara Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.21%

23.79%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.05%

57.95%

Score Analysis

Emelec 40.76%

Macara 35%

Draw 24.23%

Emelec	Draw	Macara
2-1 @ 8.75% 1-0 @ 7.78% 2-0 @ 6.1% 3-1 @ 4.57% 3-2 @ 3.28% 3-0 @ 3.18% 4-1 @ 1.79% 4-2 @ 1.29% 4-0 @ 1.25% Other @ 2.78% Total : 40.76%	1-1 @ 11.17% 2-2 @ 6.28% 0-0 @ 4.96% 3-3 @ 1.57% Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.23%	1-2 @ 8.02% 0-1 @ 7.13% 0-2 @ 5.12% 1-3 @ 3.84% 2-3 @ 3.01% 0-3 @ 2.45% 1-4 @ 1.38% 2-4 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.98% Total : 35%

Head to Head

Mar 16, 2021 10.15pm

First Round

Macara

2-2

Emelec

Muriel Orlando (26'), Adonis Santacruz Campos (90')
Calderon (16'), Paul Hernandez Porozo (24'), Arlen Portocarrero Rodriguez (30'), Adonis Santacruz Campos (48')

Barcelo (20'), Zapata Alvarez (34')
Zapata Alvarez (18'), Sanchez (45+2'), Josimar Rojas Lopez (73'), Barcelo (81'), Ortiz (84')

Form Guide

Flamengo 2-0 Emelec (4-2 pen.)

Macara 2-2 Emelec

Tolima 1-0 Macara

Macara 0-1 Tolima

Macara 3-2 Royal Pari