Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 16, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stade de Luxembourg

Luxembourg
4 - 1
Bosnia H'vina

Olesen (6'), Rodrigues (30' pen., 90+5'), Mujakic (55' og.)
Martins Pereira (24'), Mahmutovic (61')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Gojkovic (90+3')
Hadziahmetovic (26'), Cimirot (28'), Gojkovic (45+4'), Hajradinovic (69'), Dedic (71'), Krunic (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Luxembourg and Bosnia-Herzegovina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Luxembourg

All competitions

Last Game: Luxembourg 0-1 Slovakia
Monday, October 16 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	8	30	24
2	Slovakia	8	6	16
3	Luxembourg	8	-10	11
4	Iceland	8	5	10
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	8	-7	9
6	Liechtenstein	8	-24	0

Bosnia-Herzegovina

All competitions

Last Game: Bosnia H'vina 0-5 Portugal
Monday, October 16 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	8	30	24
2	Slovakia	8	6	16
3	Luxembourg	8	-10	11
4	Iceland	8	5	10
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	8	-7	9
6	Liechtenstein	8	-24	0

We said: Luxembourg 0-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina

Luxembourg's bubble appears to have burst with just one point in their previous three qualifiers, almost ending hopes of finishing in the top two. Bosnia have been a hapless mess in this group, but prior to their defeat in June, they had won all seven previous meetings with Luxembourg, keeping six clean sheets, and they will be determined to avoid a repeat of that dark day in Zenica over the summer. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 41.89%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 1-0 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.

Result
Luxembourg	Draw	Bosnia-Herzegovina
32.17% ( 1.55)	25.94% ( 0.14)	41.89% ( -1.69)

Both teams to score 53.58% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.36% (

-0.04)

50.64% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.45% (

-0.04)

72.55% (

0.04)

Luxembourg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.46% (

1.03)

29.54% (

-1.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.44% (

1.24)

65.57% (

-1.23)

Bosnia-Herzegovina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.04% (

-0.84)

23.96% (

0.85)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.81% (

-1.23)

58.19% (

1.23)

Score Analysis

Luxembourg 32.17%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 41.88%

Draw 25.94%

Luxembourg	Draw	Bosnia-Herzegovina
1-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 7.52% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 5.26% ( 0.3) 3-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.19) 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.18) 4-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.45% Total : 32.17%	1-1 @ 12.33% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.94%	0-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.36) 1-3 @ 4.2% ( -0.19) 0-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.26) 2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.11) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.13) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.9% Total : 41.88%