Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 25

Feb 18, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

U-Power Stadium

Monza
4 - 2
AC Milan

Pessina (45' pen.), Mota (45+6'), Bondo (90'), Colombo (90+5')
Djuric (33'), Pessina (45+8'), Palladino (50'), Mota (76'), Bondo (76')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Giroud (64'), Pulisic (88')
Gabbia (83')
Jovic (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Monza and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Monza

All competitions

Last Game: Monza 0-0 Hellas Verona
Sunday, February 11 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 3-0 Rennes
Thursday, February 15 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

While Milan are free-scoring, Monza have found the net just twice in four matches. Though Thursday's efforts will have sapped some of the Rossoneri's energy, they should still have enough gas in the tank to race past their Lombardy rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 47.35%. A win for Monza had a probability of 28.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-2 (7.94%). The likeliest Monza win was 1-0 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.

Result
Monza	Draw	AC Milan
28.01% ( 0.02)	24.65% ( 0.41)	47.35% ( -0.43)

Both teams to score 55.55% (

-1.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.96% (

-1.78)

47.04% (

1.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.72% (

-1.68)

69.28% (

1.68)

Monza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.38% (

-0.91)

30.62% (

0.91)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.14% (

-1.09)

66.86% (

1.09)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.07% (

-0.89)

19.93% (

0.89)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.92% (

-1.45)

52.08% (

1.45)

Score Analysis

Monza 28.01%

AC Milan 47.35%

Draw 24.65%

Monza	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.36) 2-1 @ 6.89% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 2.72% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 1.69% Other @ 3.02% Total : 28.01%	1-1 @ 11.65% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.44) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.17) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.65%	0-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.46) 1-2 @ 9.4% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 5.05% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 4.27% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.18) 1-4 @ 2.04% ( -0.13) 0-4 @ 1.72% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.9% Total : 47.35%