Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 50.05%. A win for Frosinone had a probability of 26.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.32%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Frosinone win was 2-1 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
Frosinone | Draw | AC Milan |
26.26% ( -1.33) | 23.69% ( -0.07) | 50.05% ( 1.4) |
Both teams to score 57.26% ( -0.91) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.9% ( -0.67) | 44.1% ( 0.68) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.52% ( -0.66) | 66.49% ( 0.66) |
Frosinone Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.59% ( -1.34) | 30.41% ( 1.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.39% ( -1.63) | 66.62% ( 1.63) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.29% ( 0.28) | 17.71% ( -0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.63% ( 0.48) | 48.37% ( -0.48) |
Score Analysis |
Frosinone | Draw | AC Milan |
2-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.24) 1-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 2.62% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.02% Total : 26.26% | 1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.69% | 1-2 @ 9.61% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.35) 0-2 @ 8.07% ( 0.38) 1-3 @ 5.54% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.26) 2-3 @ 3.3% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 2.4% ( 0.07) 0-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.13) 2-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.71% Total : 50.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 36 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 86 | 19 | 67 | 92 |
2 | AC Milan | 36 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 74 |
3 | Bologna | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 67 |
4 | Juventus | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 67 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 65 | 39 | 26 | 63 |
6 | Roma | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 63 | 44 | 19 | 60 |
7 | Lazio | 36 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 59 |
8 | Fiorentina | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 53 |
9 | Napoli | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 51 |
10 | Torino | 36 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 50 |
11 | Genoa | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 46 |
12 | Monza | 36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 45 |
13 | Lecce | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 37 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 34 |
15 | Udinese | 36 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 33 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
17 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 32 |
18 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 32 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 36 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 42 | 72 | -30 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 36 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 28 | 76 | -48 | 16 |
> Serie A Full Table |