Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 12

Oct 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Lille-Metropole

Lille
4 - 3
Monaco

Alexsandro (22'), Cabella (39', 62'), Bamba (71')
Bamba (50')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Henrique (34'), Disasi (44'), Ben Yedder (53')
Matazo (21'), Badiashile (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Monaco, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions

Last Game: Strasbourg 0-3 Lille
Friday, October 14 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Monaco

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Monaco 1-1 Clermont
Sunday, October 16 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Monaco would be foolish not to take full advantage of Andre and Fonte's absences this weekend, as losing two integral cogs of Fonseca's well-oiled machine certainly spells danger for the hosts. An in-form David is more than capable of troubling the Monaco backline on his own, but Clement's side have been an incredibly tough nut to crack on the road, and we expect the two managers to shake hands on a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 43%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
Lille	Draw	Monaco
43% ( -0.39)	25.28% ( 0.19)	31.71% ( 0.19)

Both teams to score 55.56% (

-0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.01% (

-0.76)

47.99% (

0.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.84% (

-0.71)

70.16% (

0.7)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.73% (

-0.51)

22.26% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.29% (

-0.77)

55.7% (

0.76)

Monaco Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.47% (

-0.25)

28.53% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.69% (

-0.31)

64.31% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Lille 43%

Monaco 31.71%

Draw 25.28%

Lille	Draw	Monaco
1-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 3.59% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.3% Total : 43%	1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.28%	0-1 @ 7.97% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.67% Total : 31.71%