Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gateshead win with a probability of 54.62%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gateshead win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gateshead would win this match.
Result | ||
Gateshead | Draw | Hartlepool United |
54.62% ( -0.13) | 21.92% ( -0.03) | 23.45% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 60.33% ( 0.3) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.34% ( 0.3) | 38.65% ( -0.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.04% ( 0.32) | 60.95% ( -0.32) |
Gateshead Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.84% ( 0.06) | 14.16% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.16% ( 0.12) | 41.83% ( -0.12) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.28% ( 0.29) | 29.71% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.22% ( 0.36) | 65.77% ( -0.36) |
Score Analysis |
Gateshead | Draw | Hartlepool United |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.04% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 6.36% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.56% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 3.38% Total : 54.62% | 1-1 @ 9.98% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.21% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.25% Total : 21.92% | 1-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.11% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.1% Total : 23.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Chesterfield | 46 | 31 | 5 | 10 | 106 | 65 | 41 | 98 |
2 | Barnet | 46 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 91 | 60 | 31 | 86 |
3 | Bromley | 46 | 22 | 15 | 9 | 73 | 49 | 24 | 81 |
4 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 84 | 59 | 25 | 77 |
5 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 71 | 62 | 9 | 76 |
6 | Gateshead | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 88 | 64 | 24 | 75 |
7 | Halifax TownHalifax | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 58 | 50 | 8 | 71 |
8 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 74 | 83 | -9 | 69 |
9 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 45 | 25 | 65 |
10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 46 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 63 | 60 | 3 | 63 |
11 | Rochdale | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 69 | 64 | 5 | 62 |
12 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 70 | 82 | -12 | 60 |
13 | Eastleigh | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 73 | 87 | -14 | 59 |
14 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 67 | -7 | 58 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 69 | 63 | 6 | 56 |
16 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 60 | 72 | -12 | 56 |
17 | Woking | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 55 |
18 | Fylde | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 74 | 82 | -8 | 55 |
19 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 59 | 74 | -15 | 54 |
20 | York City | 46 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 55 | 69 | -14 | 53 |
21 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 73 | -14 | 52 |
22 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 46 |
23 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 46 | 12 | 9 | 25 | 54 | 85 | -31 | 45 |
24 | Oxford CityOxford City | 46 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 54 | 94 | -40 | 33 |
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