Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 46.52%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 27.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Newcastle United | Draw | Brentford |
46.52% ( 0.61) | 25.59% ( -0.13) | 27.88% ( -0.48) |
Both teams to score 52.42% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.9% ( 0.24) | 51.09% ( -0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.05% ( 0.21) | 72.95% ( -0.22) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.04% ( 0.37) | 21.95% ( -0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.75% ( 0.57) | 55.24% ( -0.58) |
Brentford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.16% ( -0.25) | 32.83% ( 0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.6% ( -0.27) | 69.4% ( 0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle United | Draw | Brentford |
1-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 4.19% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.29% Total : 46.51% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 8.03% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.52% Total : 27.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 96 | 34 | 62 | 91 |
2 | Arsenal | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 91 | 29 | 62 | 89 |
3 | Liverpool | 38 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 86 | 41 | 45 | 82 |
4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 76 | 61 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 66 |
6 | Chelsea | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 77 | 63 | 14 | 63 |
7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 85 | 62 | 23 | 60 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 60 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 60 | 74 | -14 | 52 |
10 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 49 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 48 |
12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 54 | 67 | -13 | 48 |
13 | Fulham | 38 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 55 | 61 | -6 | 47 |
14 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 50 | 65 | -15 | 46 |
15 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 40 |
16 | Brentford | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 39 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 32 |
R | Luton TownLuton | 38 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 52 | 85 | -33 | 26 |
R | Burnley | 38 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 38 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 35 | 104 | -69 | 16 |
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