Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 61.57%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 17.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.95%) and 0-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 2-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Braga |
17.64% ( 0.01) | 20.79% ( 0.01) | 61.57% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 54.73% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.37% ( -0.01) | 41.62% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.97% ( -0.01) | 64.02% ( 0.01) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.92% ( 0.01) | 37.07% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.14% ( 0.01) | 73.86% ( -0.01) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.98% ( -0.01) | 13.02% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.44% ( -0.02) | 39.56% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Braga |
2-1 @ 4.84% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.79% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.38% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.63% 3-1 @ 1.6% ( 0) Other @ 2.39% Total : 17.64% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.94% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.83% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.11% Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.79% | 0-2 @ 10.03% 1-2 @ 9.95% 0-1 @ 9.84% ( 0) 0-3 @ 6.82% ( -0) 1-3 @ 6.77% ( -0) 0-4 @ 3.48% ( -0) 1-4 @ 3.45% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.36% 2-4 @ 1.71% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.42% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.41% ( -0) Other @ 3.35% Total : 61.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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