Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 76.32%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 8.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.56%) and 0-1 (10.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.23%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (2.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Estoril Praia | Draw | Benfica |
8.49% ( -0.52) | 15.2% ( -0.52) | 76.32% ( 1.04) |
Both teams to score 46.17% ( -0.39) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.6% ( 0.74) | 38.4% ( -0.73) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.31% ( 0.77) | 60.69% ( -0.77) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.39% ( -0.65) | 49.61% ( 0.66) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.62% ( -0.46) | 84.38% ( 0.47) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.62% ( 0.41) | 8.38% ( -0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.84% ( 1.01) | 29.16% ( -1.01) |
Score Analysis |
Estoril Praia | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.02% Total : 8.49% | 1-1 @ 7.23% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.68% Total : 15.2% | 0-2 @ 12.77% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 10.56% ( 0.25) 0-1 @ 10.3% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 8.96% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 7.4% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 6.55% ( 0.28) 1-4 @ 4.59% ( 0.11) 0-5 @ 3.25% ( 0.2) 2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 2.28% ( 0.1) 2-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.01) 0-6 @ 1.34% ( 0.11) 1-6 @ 0.94% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.17% Total : 76.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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