Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 64.72%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 13.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.1%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
Result | ||
Roma | Draw | Lecce |
64.72% ( 0.22) | 21.57% ( -0.11) | 13.7% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 43.37% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.84% ( 0.21) | 52.16% ( -0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.13% ( 0.19) | 73.87% ( -0.19) |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.56% ( 0.14) | 15.44% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.71% ( 0.27) | 44.29% ( -0.27) |
Lecce Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.28% ( -0.03) | 48.72% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.25% ( -0.02) | 83.75% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Roma | Draw | Lecce |
1-0 @ 14.05% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 13.12% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 5.88% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.82% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.94% Total : 64.72% | 1-1 @ 10.1% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.52% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 3.39% ( -0) Other @ 0.55% Total : 21.57% | 0-1 @ 5.41% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.71% Total : 13.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 67 | 94 |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 76 | 49 | 27 | 75 |
3 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 71 |
4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 69 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 61 |
8 | Fiorentina | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 57 |
9 | Torino | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 53 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 49 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 38 |
15 | Udinese | 38 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 37 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 36 |
17 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 36 |
R | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 35 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 30 |
R | Salernitana | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 81 | -49 | 17 |
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