Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 28, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Manuel Ferreira
Olimpia4 - 1Melgar
Form, Standings, Stats
We said: Olimpia 2-1 Melgar
Group leaders Olimpia have won both of their home matches in the group stage without conceding, and we think that they will claim another victory when they face a Melgar side who have lost both of their two away group games. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 50.06%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 23.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Olimpia would win this match.
Result | ||
Olimpia | Draw | Melgar |
50.06% ( -0.43) | 26.25% ( 0.18) | 23.69% ( 0.26) |
Both teams to score 46.92% ( -0.22) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.5% ( -0.43) | 56.5% ( 0.43) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.5% ( -0.35) | 77.49% ( 0.34) |
Olimpia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.36% ( -0.37) | 22.64% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.72% ( -0.56) | 56.27% ( 0.56) |
Melgar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.65% ( 0) | 39.35% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.95% ( 0) | 76.05% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Olimpia 50.05%
Melgar 23.69%
Draw 26.24%
Olimpia | Draw | Melgar |
1-0 @ 13.23% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 9.83% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.81% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.82% Total : 50.05% | 1-1 @ 12.34% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.72% Total : 26.24% | 0-1 @ 8.31% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.88% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.43% Total : 23.69% |
How you voted: Olimpia vs Melgar
Olimpia
100%Draw
0.0%Melgar
0.0%5
Head to Head
Apr 7, 2023 1am
Group Stage
Melgar
1-1
Olimpia
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-05-31 21:16:25
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C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 96 | 34 | 62 | 91 |
2 | Arsenal | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 91 | 29 | 62 | 89 |
3 | Liverpool | 38 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 86 | 41 | 45 | 82 |
4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 76 | 61 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 66 |
6 | Chelsea | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 77 | 63 | 14 | 63 |
7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 85 | 62 | 23 | 60 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 60 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 60 | 74 | -14 | 52 |
10 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 49 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 48 |
12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 54 | 67 | -13 | 48 |
13 | Fulham | 38 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 55 | 61 | -6 | 47 |
14 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 50 | 65 | -15 | 46 |
15 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 40 |
16 | Brentford | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 39 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 32 |
R | Luton TownLuton | 38 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 52 | 85 | -33 | 26 |
R | Burnley | 38 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 38 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 35 | 104 | -69 | 16 |
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