Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 63.06%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 16.42%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Empoli |
63.06% ( -0.08) | 20.51% ( 0.05) | 16.42% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 53.09% ( -0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.46% ( -0.2) | 42.53% ( 0.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.06% ( -0.2) | 64.94% ( 0.2) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.13% ( -0.08) | 12.86% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.75% ( -0.17) | 39.25% ( 0.17) |
Empoli Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.93% ( -0.09) | 39.07% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.21% ( -0.08) | 75.79% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Empoli |
2-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 10.3% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.93% 3-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.79% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.7% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.29% Total : 63.05% | 1-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.51% | 0-1 @ 4.72% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 4.55% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0) Other @ 2.04% Total : 16.42% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 67 | 94 |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 76 | 49 | 27 | 75 |
3 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 71 |
4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 69 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 61 |
8 | Fiorentina | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 57 |
9 | Torino | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 53 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 49 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 38 |
15 | Udinese | 38 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 37 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 36 |
17 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 36 |
R | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 35 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 30 |
R | Salernitana | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 81 | -49 | 17 |
> Serie A Full Table |