Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 75.35%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 8.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.37%) and 3-0 (10.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.59%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Braga | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
75.35% ( 0.06) | 15.98% ( -0.02) | 8.67% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 44.14% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.48% ( 0.01) | 41.52% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.08% ( 0.01) | 63.92% ( -0.01) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.64% ( 0.02) | 9.36% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.46% ( 0.04) | 31.54% ( -0.04) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.7% ( -0.06) | 51.3% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.46% ( -0.04) | 85.54% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Braga | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
2-0 @ 13.47% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 11.37% 3-0 @ 10.63% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.1% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.2% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.99% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.4% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 3.35% Total : 75.33% | 1-1 @ 7.59% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.8% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.58% Total : 15.98% | 0-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 1.86% Total : 8.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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