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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 58.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 20.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 0-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.43%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Union Berlin | Draw | Bayern Munich |
20.66% ( 0.21) | 20.83% ( 0.04) | 58.51% ( -0.25) |
Both teams to score 60.17% ( 0.2) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.94% ( 0.11) | 37.06% ( -0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.75% ( 0.11) | 59.25% ( -0.11) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.74% ( 0.26) | 31.26% ( -0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.38% ( 0.3) | 67.62% ( -0.3) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.54% ( -0.04) | 12.46% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.58% ( -0.08) | 38.41% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Union Berlin | Draw | Bayern Munich |
2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.65% Total : 20.66% | 1-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.26% Total : 20.83% | 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 8.11% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 6.82% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 5.87% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.55% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.05% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 2.06% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.06% Total : 58.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 33 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 87 | 23 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 33 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 92 | 41 | 51 | 72 |
3 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 75 | 37 | 38 | 64 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 46 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 64 | -2 | 43 |
8 | Freiburg | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 42 |
9 | Heidenheim | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 63 | -7 | 34 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 33 |
15 | Mainz 05Mainz | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 32 |
16 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 |
17 | FC Koln | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 82 | -52 | 17 |
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