Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 82.4%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 6.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.82%) and 4-0 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.32%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-2 (1.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
82.4% ( -0.39) | 11.46% ( 0.23) | 6.14% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 49.05% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
71.56% ( -0.58) | 28.43% ( 0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
50.72% ( -0.72) | 49.28% ( 0.71) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.91% ( -0.17) | 5.08% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
79.77% ( -0.52) | 20.23% ( 0.52) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.68% ( -0) | 48.32% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.53% ( -0) | 83.46% |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
2-0 @ 10.89% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 10.82% 4-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 7.87% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0) 6-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.06) 5-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.03) 7-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.93% Total : 82.38% | 1-1 @ 5.32% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.8% Total : 11.46% | 1-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.42% Total : 6.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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